Blood and Ballots: How Organized Crime Influences Elections

Organized crime is rewriting the rules of democracy replacing debate with bullets, policy with payoffs. From Mexico to El Salvador, gangs and cartels bend elections to their will, leaving citizens trapped between ballots and bloodshed.

Blood and Ballots: How Organized Crime Influences Elections
Blood and Ballots: How Organized Crime Influences Elections

Opening the Curtains: A Democracy Under Siege

Imagine a polling station where whispers of threats follow every campaign poster, where candidates don bulletproof vests instead of suits, and where elections are bargains brokered in cartel backrooms rather than on open platforms. Across Latin America, in places where ballots are supposed to signal the voice of the people, the real thread pulling them often belongs to organized crime gangs and cartels that see local government not as a service, but as a strategic asset.

This isn't a dystopian fiction it’s reality in many regions. In Mexico alone, dozens of candidates have been assassinated in recent campaigns, prompting a chilling question: when votes are bought with blood, who truly governs?

Anatomy of Influence: How Crime Hijacks Democracy

a. Intimidation and Elimination

The most brutal tactic: kill or scare off opposition. In Mexico’s 2024 local races, scores of candidates often for mayoral posts were murdered or threatened. Criminal groups view these positions as gateways to power: controlling police forces, influencing zoning laws, and directing public contracts. Removing uncooperative candidates ensures compliance and sends a warning to others.

b. Vote-Buying and Co-opted Campaigns

In El Salvador during the 2014 elections, gang leaders from MS-13 and Barrio 18 were courted by political parties. What began as informal contact turned into direct campaign offers: identity documents, protection, even luxury perks in exchange for votes from gang networks. Thousands of gang-affiliated supporters became block-voting blocs, tipping local races.

c. Strategic Alliances: From Gangs to Government

Cartels don’t just eliminate; they partner. In some Mexican municipalities, cartels strike long-term pacts with mayoral or state candidates. The deal: politicians turn a blind eye to illegal activities; cartels keep control, behind a veneer of institutional legitimacy. When the cartel-backed candidate wins, law enforcement agencies become extensions of their operation, enforcing criminal rule under the guise of state authority.

d. Electoral Finance and “Rent Capture”

Political campaigns are expensive and legal funding often lacks transparency. Cartels fill the gap, funneling cash into campaigns, then expecting a return via official contracts, exemptions, or policing leniency. This is “rent capture”: state resources diverted into criminal coffers, enabling a dangerous cycle of patronage.

Four ways organized crime bends the ballot
Four ways organized crime bends the ballot

Real Lives, Real Losses: Grounded Examples

Mexico: A Surge of Political Murders

In 2024, the lead-up to Mexico’s historic elections where over 20,000 seats were contested became the bloodiest ever. More than 20 candidates were assassinated, with local mayors prime targets. In Maravatío, two hopefuls were shot dead within hours of each other, their cars found abandoned and bloodied. Organized crime’s grip on local politics grows tighter, as candidates become commodities and campaigns a matter of survival.

El Salvador’s Gang Truce Debacle

During the 2014 Salvadoran presidential race, recordings emerged showing candidates negotiating with gang leaders. Parties paid for gang support—offering everything from prison concessions to cash. Later, former mayor Norman Quijano faced criminal charges for trading electoral favors, and today serves a prison sentence for electoral fraud tied to gang negotiations.

A Broader Envelope of Influence

Scholarly research on Mexico’s political violence shows that cartels target areas rich in illicit markets oil pipelines ripe for theft, for example during election periods. Killing or pressuring candidates in these regions helps them maintain control over lucrative operations. Surprisingly, while voter turnout doesn't always drop after a homicide, it can increase when law enforcement cracks down—driven by a public desire for change.

Political violence hotspots—where ballots face bullets
Political violence hotspots where ballots face bullets

Why It Matters: Democracy Undermined

a. Erosion of Trust

When cartel-backed candidates win, government legitimacy crumbles. Citizens learn that voting doesn’t change anything—power lies elsewhere. Distrust becomes systemic.

b. Normalizing Crime in Governance

Election cycles dominated by criminal influence blur lines between state and underworld. Organized crime becomes an invisible governing party, shaping policies and enforcing its own rules.

c. Silenced Dissent and Curtailing Choice

Potential reformers or independent candidates withdraw from the race preferring exile or safety over facing bullets. Public policy becomes static, unresponsive, and defensive.

Campaigning under fire literally
Campaigning under fire literally

Resisting the Tide: Paths to Recovery

1. Protecting Candidates

Substantial security for candidates under threat offered by federal or international agencies can save lives and preserve democratic choice.

2. Transparency in Campaign Finance

Tracking electoral funding, enforcing caps, and auditing donations make it harder for illicit finances to sway results.

3. Community Engagement and Civic Education

Voters must know the full implications of cartel voting blocs. Public awareness campaigns that spotlight cartel manipulation can reclaim civic agency.

4. Strengthening Local Institutions

Empowering local courts, policing integrity, and expanding municipal autonomy makes it harder for cartels to co-opt governance.

5. Regional and International Support

Groups like development banks, international observers, and NGOs can provide oversight, resources, and credibility to troubled regions.

6. A Glimmer of Hope

Despite the darkness, some local communities resist. Civil society organizations document threats, support surviving candidates, and provide legal aid when violence occurs. In places where candidates survive the threats and campaigns proceed, victory isn't just electoral—it’s symbolic. Survivors become beacons that democracy can, sometimes, withstand the bullet.

A Final Thought: Democracy’s Fragile Flame

When elections are tainted by threats, money, and bullets, democracy risks becoming a hollow contract a transaction rather than an ideal. But each safeguard put in place, every candidate who refuses to bow, and every voter who shows up despite fear, rekindles that delicate flame.

"Blood and ballots" is not a paradox it’s a warning. Without vigilance, democracy can be hollowed from within. But with awareness, reform, and collective resistance, the ballot can reclaim its rightful place: speaking for the people, not the cartels.

Sources

  1. In Mexico, a wave of political murders eats away at democracy – Reuters
  2. Two mayoral hopefuls of a Mexican city are shot dead within hours of each other – AP News
  3. What to know about Mexico's historic elections Sunday – AP News
  4. Academic research on electoral violence and organized crime in Latin America (various peer-reviewed studies).